Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 17.854669 20.684801 23.751802 27.314065 31.328985 35.705123 40.826763
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 13.655056 17.627162 22.332266 28.276376 35.541293 44.084836 54.841339
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 10.466857 14.874583 20.518430 28.179070 38.196179 50.728527 67.454232
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 8.822898 13.615711 20.170599 29.613238 42.656928 59.801601 83.753856
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 7.359608 12.253833 19.361180 30.159059 45.811847 67.284064 98.477280
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 6.132783 10.968024 18.392796 30.235903 48.166914 73.717192 112.131707
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 5.177058 9.904510 17.551658 30.307617 50.396805 80.012780 125.915599
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 4.804281 9.726077 18.039353 32.424452 55.813861 91.248129 147.512782
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 4.350524 9.316029 18.067537 33.760620 60.072092 100.982805 167.446245
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 3.945954 8.919080 18.047133 34.975564 64.183951 110.705621 187.891511
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 3.429018 8.207897 17.361589 34.941503 66.182044 117.177636 203.609289
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.883719 7.333659 16.246294 33.993469 66.498230 120.896997 215.099491
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 2.411759 6.537809 15.195586 33.089899 66.889477 124.899527 227.547259
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 2.120751 6.093472 14.787124 33.362798 69.416757 132.677497 246.737960
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.811109 5.537764 14.063485 32.924797 70.579472 138.165861 262.386198
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.691161 5.432049 14.293818 34.434837 75.525883 150.571021 290.526399
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 1.519749 5.152628 14.091060 35.005944 78.677125 159.918903 313.785984
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 1.339016 4.805644 13.678825 35.073854 80.821172 167.536705 334.354827
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 1.182299 4.490134 13.292715 35.147872 82.964433 175.250529 355.454301
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 1.158949 4.575387 13.910475 37.549428 90.069841 192.658247 394.971653
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 1.092910 4.511234 14.137452 39.064532 95.414297 206.974297 429.428223
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 1.025521 4.427490 14.300975 40.441880 100.553990 221.146392 464.228947
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 0.909180 4.147183 13.895293 40.403078 102.617791 229.408027 488.286280